/2009/05/01/the-purpose-of-scenarios/Andrew Curry's blog on futures, trends, emerging issues and scenariosWed, 13 May 2009 15:26:39 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com//2009/05/01/the-purpose-of-scenarios/#comment-2352Wed, 13 May 2009 15:26:39 +0000/?p=901#comment-2352Andrew, thanks for v.useful guide and summary and your own piece which is fabulous. Anyway, my comment: this idea that “the only evidence of success is some 40-year old work done by Shell and some 20-year old work done in South Africa…” is the view propagated by the folks who did that work. It’s just GBN/Generon marketing. (Btw, the Mont Fleur scenarios were, at best, a restatement of the obvious – speaking as one who lived in SA through the 1980s and early 1990s – and made absolutely zero difference to govt, civic, party, or corporate initiatives, or real outcomes.)

]]>/2009/05/01/the-purpose-of-scenarios/#comment-2351Mon, 11 May 2009 10:13:59 +0000/?p=901#comment-2351I’d only take issue with one point in your argument, Andrew. That is that ‘scanning produces too much data’. I’d argue, only if you let it.
First scanning should be focused on the vital few, second electronic tools can increae the power of data and amplify to information and knowledge. Scenarios for me can be improved by applying more robust scanning and asociated evidence bases. There are emerging tools which we are working with that allow this process to be seamless.

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