Comments on: Black swans, unknown unknowns, and wild cards/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/Andrew Curry's blog on futures, trends, emerging issues and scenariosMon, 19 Jun 2017 06:22:12 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com/By: Grenfell Tower, predictable surprises and slow violence | thenextwave/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/#comment-6897Mon, 19 Jun 2017 06:22:12 +0000/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/#comment-6897[…] concept, originally formulated by Vinay Gupta. The black elephant is a cross between a ‘black swan‘ and an elephant in the room, or, in Gupta’s words, “an event which is extremely […]

]]>By: Sharper, not flatter « thenextwave/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/#comment-3052Sat, 17 Sep 2011 12:36:58 +0000/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/#comment-3052[…] final note. The ’9/11′ attacks are often used as an example of a ‘black swan‘ – the utterly unexpected, low probability, high impact event, which transforms our […]

]]>By: Playing the risk game (1 of 2) « thenextwave/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/#comment-2681Sun, 20 Jun 2010 16:45:17 +0000/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/#comment-2681[…] which appear out of nowhere, and which was first described in his book Fooled by Randomness. I’ve criticised his concept before. Most so-called ‘black swans’, such as the perennially cited 9/11 attacks, turn […]

]]>By: Some notes on the crash - and the rescue « thenextwave/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/#comment-2159Sat, 11 Oct 2008 21:10:09 +0000/2007/05/19/black-swans-unknown-unknowns-and-wild-cards/#comment-2159[…] on Wall Street and its failings even though I’m sceptical about his influential ‘black swan‘ theory). Taleb’s aside is […]

]]>