Comments on: The iPad and the Chevrolet/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/Andrew Curry's blog on futures, trends, emerging issues and scenariosMon, 05 Sep 2016 07:35:23 +0000hourly1http://wordpress.com/By: Why Apple’s Irish problem is also Ireland’s Apple problem | thenextwave/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-6302Mon, 05 Sep 2016 07:35:23 +0000/?p=1495#comment-6302[…] a fan of Carlota Perez’ model of the relationship between finance and technological innovation. She suggests that since the […]

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By: Disturbing the future: my ‘Five Books’ interview | thenextwave/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-5929Sun, 28 Jun 2015 08:04:27 +0000/?p=1495#comment-5929[…] Carlota Perez, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital […]

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By: Long waves and the innovation question | thenextwave/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-5925Sat, 20 Jun 2015 08:17:48 +0000/?p=1495#comment-5925[…] capital, and a deployment phase, driven by production capital, separated by a crash. (There’s a fuller explanation here). The engine for the next upturn (deployment) emerges from the end of the previous upturn. […]

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By: Anticipating the next wave | thenextwave/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-5401Sat, 24 May 2014 15:15:06 +0000/?p=1495#comment-5401[…] readers of the next wave will know that I am a fan of the work of the economic and technology historian Carlota Perez, who developed a model that explains the […]

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By: The curse of the invisible interface | thenextwave/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-4439Thu, 09 May 2013 08:02:44 +0000/?p=1495#comment-4439[…] less visible to the user as the technology becomes more mature. (We know longer need to know how to repair our cars to drive them. for example). In fact Norman’s earlier book, The Design of Everyday Things, is a better […]

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By: The long view of technology « thenextwave/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-3320Sat, 17 Dec 2011 21:36:57 +0000/?p=1495#comment-3320[…] To use an analogy that was made at the time of the launch of the iPad, this was technology’s ‘Chevrolet moment’, the point at which an owner no longer needed to know what was happening ‘under the hood’ to […]

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By: Thinking about Ed « thenextwave/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-2749Sun, 03 Oct 2010 20:51:38 +0000/?p=1495#comment-2749[…] economics, and innovation waves proposed by Carlota Perez (I’ve written about this here before) the story seems to overlap. The ‘installation’ phase of a technology wave is driven by […]

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By: Six lessons from Facebook’s privacy wars « thenextwave/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-2668Tue, 18 May 2010 22:44:22 +0000/?p=1495#comment-2668[…] attributes of a utility. We’re moving to a phase in the web’s development where it is increasingly pervasive, moving from ‘installation’ to ‘deployment’. And, certainly in Europe, […]

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By: thenextwavefutures/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-2624Sun, 18 Apr 2010 17:28:19 +0000/?p=1495#comment-2624In reply to Adam Gordon.

Adam,

It’s a good question, but if we take Carlota Perez’s dates for the start of each ‘surge’, which she has evidenced, it doesn’t look as if history is speeding up. They are: 1771, Water power, canals; 1829, steam power and railways; 1875; electricity and steel; 1908, automobiles, oil, mass production; 1971, information and telecommunications.

The longest is 1908-1971 (63 years), which is possibly explained by two large wars and their effects on production; the shortest is 1875-1908 (33 years), the late 19th century boom which some historians still regard as having involved more large scale change than our recent globalisation phase.

As for the present surge, there are candidates for the next dominant technology, in biotechnology, environmental technologies, or nano/materials, but none has made a decisive claim yet. We’re 39 years in, and I’d say we have at least a decade to go, perhaps more.

Andrew

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By: Adam Gordon/2010/02/03/the-ipad-and-the-chevrolet/#comment-2621Tue, 13 Apr 2010 15:01:46 +0000/?p=1495#comment-2621Andrew, great post, thanks. Just wondering if there’s any suggestion that these K-waves are becoming shorter (from start to finish) over time, which would suggest some cred to the theory that history is ‘speeding up’ – which I personally doubt. But it would be interesting to see if there’s any K-wave evidence for or against this. A

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